An essay concerning the multiplication of mankind: together with another essay in political arithmetick, concerning the growth of the city of London: with the measures, periods, causes, and consequences thereof. 1682. / By Sir William Petty ...

Of the Growth of the City of LONDON , and of the Measures , Periods , Causes and Consequences thereof .

BY the City of London , Wh●● is me●●t by Lo●●on . we mean the Housing within the Walls of the Old City , with the Liberties thereof , Westminster , the Borough of Southwark , and so much of the built Ground in Middlesex and Surrey , whose Houses are contiguous unto , or within Call of those afore-mentioned . Or else we mean the Housing which stand upon the Ninety Seven Parishes within the Walls of London ; upon the Sixteen Parishes next , without them ; the Six Parishes of Westminster , and the Fourteen out-Parishes in Middlesex and Surrey , contiguous to the former , all which One Hundred and Thirty Three Parishes are comprehended within the Weekly Bills of Mortality .

The Growth of this City is measured , Wha● is mea●● by ●he Gro●●h of Lon●on . 1. By the Quantity of Ground , or Number of Acres upon which it stands . 2. By the Number of Houses , as the same appears by the Hearth-Books and late Maps . 3. By the Cubical Content of the said Housing . 4. By the Flooring of the same . 5. By the Number of Days-work , or Charge of Building the said Houses . 6. By the Value of the said Houses , according to their yearly Rent , and Number of Years Purchase . 7. By the Number of Inhabitants ; according to which latter Sense only , we make our Computation in this Essay .

Till a better Rule can be obtained , we conceive that the Proportion of the People may be sufficiently measured by the Proportion of the Burials in such Years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary Healthfulness or Sickliness .

That the City hath Increased in this latter Sense , 〈◊〉 what M●●sures th● City ha●● incr●●sed . appears from the Bills of Mortality , represented in the two following Tables , viz. One whereof is a continuation for Eighteen Years , ending 1682. of that Table which was published in the 117. Page of the Book of the Observations upon the London Bills of Mortality , Printed in the Year 1676. The other sheweth what Number of People died at a Medium of two Years , indifferently taken , at about Twenty Years distance from each other .

ThefirstofthesaidtwoTables. Anno Dom. 97 Parishes . 16 Parishes . Out-Parishes . Buried in all . Besides of the Plag . Christn'd 1665 5320 12463 10925 28708 68596 9967 1666 1689 3969 5082 10740 1998 8997 1667 761 6405 8641 15807 35 10938 1668 796 6865 9603 17267 14 11633 1669 1323 7500 10440 19263 3 12335 1670 1890 7808 10500 20198 11997 1671 1723 5938 8063 15724 5 12510 1672 2237 6788 9200 18225 5 12593 1673 2307 6302 8890 17499 5 11895 1674 2801 7522 10875 21198 3 11851 1675 2555 5986 8702 17243 1 11775 1676 2756 6508 9466 18730 2 12399 1677 2817 6632 9616 19065 2 12626 1678 3060 6705 10908 20673 5 12601 1679 3074 7481 11173 21728 2 12288 1680 3076 7066 10911 21053 12747 1681 3669 8136 12166 23971 13355 1682 2975 7009 10707 20691 12353

According to which latter Table there died as followeth .

The latter of the said two Tables . At a Medium between the Years There died in London , 1604 and 1605 5135. A. 1621 and 1622 8527. B. 1641 and 1642 11883. C. 1661 and 1662 15148. D. 1681 and 1682 22331. E.

Wherein observe , That the Number C. is double to A. and 806 over . That D. is double to B. within 1906. That C. and D. is double to A. B. within 293. That E. is double to C. within 1435. That D. and E. is double to B. and C. within 3341. And that C. and D. and E. are double to A. and B. and C. within 1736. And that E. is above Quadruple to A. All which Differences ( every way considered ) do allow the doubling of the People of London in Forty Years , to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round Numbers , and without the trouble of Fractions . We also say , That 669930 is near the Number of People now in London , because the Burials are 22331. which multiplied by 30 , ( one dying yearly out of 30 , as appears in the 94 p. of the afore-mentioned Observations ) maketh the said Number ; and because there are 84000 tenanted Houses ( as we are credibly informed ) which at eight in each , makes 672000 Souls ; the said two Accounts differing inconsiderably from each other .

We have thus pretty well found out in what Number of Years ( viz. in about 40 ) that the City of London hath doubled , and the present Number of Inhabitants to be about 670000. We must now also endeavour the same for the whole Territory of England and Wales . In order whereunto , we

First say , That the Assessment of London is about an † † The People of London are about the 11th . part of all England and Wales . Eleventh part of the whole Territory , and therefore that the People of the whole may well be Eleven times that of London , viz. about ‖ ‖ The People of England about seven Millions and Four Hundred Thousand . Seven Millions , Three Hundred Sixty Nine Thousand Souls ; with which Account that of the Poll-Money , Hearth-Money , and the Bishops late numbring of the Communicants , do pretty well agree ; wherefore although the said Number of Seven Millions , Three Hundred Sixty Nine Thousand , be not ( as it cannot be ) a demonstrated Truth , yet it will serve for a good Supposition , which is as much as we want at present .

As for the time in which the People double , it is yet more hard to be found : For we have good Experience ( in the said 94 pag. of the afore-mentioned Observations ) that in the Country , but one of fifty die per Annum ; and by other late Accounts , that there have been sometimes but Twenty Four Births for Twenty Three Burials : The which two Points , if they were universally , and constantly true , there would be colour enough to say , that the People doubled but in about 1200 Years . As for Example : Suppose there be 600 People , of which let a fiftieth part die per Annum , then there shall die Twelve per Annum ; and if the Births be as Twenty Four to Twenty Three , then the Increase of the People shall be somewhat above half a Man per Annum , and consequently the supposed Number of 600 , cannot be doubled but in 1126 Years , which to reckon in round Numbers , and for that the afore-mentioned Fractions were not exact , we had rather call 1200.

There are also other good Observations , That even in the Country , one in about 30 , or 32 per Annum hath died , and that there have been five Births for four Burials . Now , according to this Doctrine , 20 will die per Annum out of the above 600 , and 25 will be born , so as the Increase will be 5 , which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we have two fair Computations , differing from each other as one to ten ; and there are also several other good Observations for other Measures .

I might here insert , That altho the Births in this last Computation be 25 of 600 , or a Twenty fourth part of the People ; yet that in Natural possibility , they may be near thrice as many , and near 75. For that by some late Observations , the Teeming Females between 15 and 44 , are about 180 of the said 600 , and the Males of between 18 and 59 , are about 180 also , and that every Teeming Woman can bear a Child once in two Years ; from all which it is plain , that the Births may be 90 , ( and abating 15 for Sickness , Young Abortions , and Natural Barrenness ) there may remain 75 Births , which is an Eighth of the People ; which by some Observations we have found to be but a two and thirtieth part , or but a quarter of what is thus shewn to be Naturally possible . Now , according to this Reckoning , if the Births may be 75 of 600 , and the Burials but 15 , then the Annual Increase of the People will be 60 ; and so the said 600 People may double in 10 Years , which differs yet more from 1200 , abovementioned . Now to get out of this Difficulty , and to temper those vast disagreements , I took the Medium of 50 and 30 dying per Annum , and pitch'd upon 40 ; and I also took the Medium between 24 Births and 23 Burials , and 5 Births for 4 Burials , viz. allowing about 10 Births for 9 Burials ; upon which Supposition , there must die 15 per Annum out of the above-mentioned 600 , and the Births must be 16 and two thirds , and the Increase 1 , and two Thirds , or five Thirds of a Man , That the time of doubling is here , and now 360 Years . which Number compared with 1800 Thirds , or 600 Men , gives 360 Years for the time of doubling ( including some Allowance for Wars , Plagues , and Famine ; the Effects whereof , though they be Terrible at the Times and Places where they happen , yet in a period of 360 Years , is no great matter in the whole Nation . For the Plagues of England in 20 Years hath carried away scarce an Eightieth part of the People of the whole Nation ; and the late 10 Years Civil Wars , ( the like whereof hath not been in several Ages before ) did not take away above a fortieth part of the whole People . )

According to which Account or Measure of doubling , if there be now in England and Wales , 7 Millions 400 Thousand People , there were about 5 Millions 526 Thousand in the beginning of Queen Elizabeths Reign , Anno 1560 , and about two Millions at the Norman Conquest ; of which Consult the Dooms-day Book , and My Lord Hale's Origination of Mankind .

Memorandum , 320 Millions now in the World . That if the People double in 360 Years , that the present 320 Millions , computed by some Learned Men , ( from the Measures of all the Nations of the World , their degrees of being Peopled , and good Accounts of the People in several of them ) to be now upon the face of the Earth , will within the next 2000 Years . so increase , as to give one Head for every two Acres of Land in the Habitable part of the Earth . And then , according to the Prediction of the Scriptures , there must be Wars and great Slaughter , &c.

Wherefore , as an Expedient against the above-mentioned difference between 10 and 1200 Years , we do for the present , and in this Country admit of 360 Years to be the time wherein the People of England do double , according to the present Laws and Practice of Marriages .

Now , if the City double its People in 40 Years , and the present Number be 670 Thousand , and if the whole Territory be 7 Millions 400 Thousand , and double in 360 Years , as aforesaid ; then by the underwritten Table it appears , that Anno 1840 , the People of the City will be 10718880 , and those of the whole Country but 10917389 , which is but inconsiderably more . Wherefore it is certain and necessary that the Growth of the City must stop before the said Year 1840 ; and will be at its utmost height in the next preceding Period , Anno 1800 , when the Number of the City will be Eight times its present Number , viz. 5 Millions 359 Thousand . And when ( besides the said Number ) there will be 4 Millions 466 Thousand to perform the Tillage , Pasturage , and other Rural Works necessary to be done without the said City , as by the following Table , viz.

Annis . Burials . People in London . People in England . As in the former Tab. 1565 2568 77040 5526929 1605 5135 1642 11883 1682 22331 669930 7369230 1722 44662 1762 89324 1802 178648 5359440 9825650 1842 357296 10718889 10917389

Now , That London will be at its highest growth , and eight times as great as now , Anno 1800. when the People of London shall come to be so near the People of all England , Then it follows , that the Growth of London must stop before the said Year 1842 , as aforesaid , and must be at its greatest height Anno 1800 , when it will be eight times more than now , with above 4 Millions for the Service of the Country and Ports , as aforesaid .

Of the afore-mentioned vast difference between 10 Years and 1200 Years for doubling the People , we make this use , viz. A digression of the use of the vast difference between 10 and 1200 Years of doubling . To justifie the Scriptures and all other good Histories concerning the Number of the People in Ancient Time . For supposing the Eight Persons who came out of the Ark , Increased by a Progressive doubling in every 10 Years , might grow in the first 100 Years after the Flood from 8 to 8000 , and that in 350 Years after the Flood ( whenabout Noah died ) to one Million , and by this time 1682 , to 320 Millions ( which by rational conjecture , are thought to be now in the World ) it will not be hard to compute , how in the intermediate Years , the Growths may be made , according to what is set down in the following Table , wherein making the doubling to be 10 Years at first , and within 1200 Years at last , we take a discretionary liberty , but justifiable by Observations and the Scriptures for the rest ; which Table we leave to be Corrected by Historians , who know the bigness of Ancient Cities , Armies , and Colonies in the respective Ages of the World : in the mean time affirming , that without such difference in the Measures and Periods for doubling ( the extreams whereof we have demonstrated to be real and true ) it is impossible to solve what is written in the Holy Scriptures and other Authentick Books . For if we pitch upon any one Number throughout for this purpose , 150 Years is the fittest of all round Numbers ; according to which , there would have been but 512 Souls in the whole World in Moses's time ( being 800 Years after the Flood ) when 603 Thousand Israelites of above 20 Years Old ( besides those of other Ages , Tribes , and Nations ) were found upon an exact Survey appointed by God ; whereas our Table makes 12 Millions . And there would have been but 8000 in David's Time , when were found 1100 Thousand of above 20 Years Old ( besides others , as aforesaid ) in Israel , upon the Survey instigated by Satan ; whereas our Table makes 32 Millions . And there would have been but a quarter of a Million about the Birth of Christ , or Augustus his Time , when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great ; whereas our Table makes 100 Millions . Where Note , That the Israelites in about 500 Years , between their coming out of Egypt to David's Reign , increased from 603 Thousand to 1100 Thousand .

On the other hand , if we pitch upon a less Number , as 100 Years , the World would have been over-peopled 700 Years since . Wherefore no one Number will solve the Phaenomena ; and therefore we have supposed several in order to make the following Table , which we again desire Historians to Correct , according to what they find in Antiquity concerning the Number of the People in each Age and Country of the World .

We did ( not long since ) assist a worthy Divine , writing against some Scepticks , who would have baffled our belief of the Resurrection , by saying , that the whole Globe of the Earth could not furnish Matter enough for all the Bodies that must Rise at the last Day , much less would the surface of the Earth furnish footing for so vast a Number ; whereas we did ( by the Method aforementioned ) assert the Number of Men now living , and also of those that had died since the beginning of the World ; and did withal shew , that half the Island of Ireland would afford them all , not only Footing to stand upon , but Graves to lie down in , for that whole Number ; and that two Mountains in that Country were as weighty as all the Bodies that had ever been from the beginning of the World to the Year 1680 , when this Dispute happened . For which purpose , I have digressed from my intended purpose , to insert this Matter , intending to prosecute this hint further , upon some more proper Occasion .

ATableshewinghowthePeoplemighthavedoubledintheseveralAgesoftheWorld. Periods of doubling Anno after the Flood . Persons . In 10 Years 1 8 10 16 20 32 30 64 40 128 50 256 60 512 70 1024 80 2048 90 4096 100 8000 and more . In 20 Years 120 Years after the Flood . 16 Thousand . 140 32 In 30 Years 170 64 200 128 In 40 Years 240 256 In 50 Years 290 512 In 60 Years 350 1 Million and more . In 70 Years 420 2 Millions . In 100 Years 520 4 Millions . In 190 Years 710 8 Millions . In 290 Years 1000 16 In Moses Time . In 400 Years 1400 32 About Davids Time . In 550 Years 1950 64 In 750 Years 2700 128 About the Birth of Christ . In 1000 Years 3700 256 In 300 Years 4000 320 In 1000 Years

It is here to be noted , That in this Table we have assigned a different Number of Years for the time of doubling the People in the several Ages of the World , and might have done the same for the several Countries of the World , and therefore the said several Periods assigned to the whole World in the Lump , may well enough consist with the Three Hundred and Sixty Years , especially assigned to England , between this day , and the Norman Conquest ; and the said Three Hundred and Sixty Years may well enough serve for a Supposition between this time , and that of the World 's being fully Peopled : Nor do we lay any stress upon one or the other in this Disquisition concerning the Growth of the City of London .

We have spoken of the Growth of London , with the Measures and Periods thereof , we come next to the Causes and Consequences of the same .

The Causes of its Growth from 1642 to 1682 , may be said to have been as followeth , viz. From 1642 to 1650 , that Men came out of the Countrey to London , to shelter themselves from the Outrages of the Civil Wars , during that time ; from 1650 to 1660 , the Royal Party came to London , for their more private and inexpensive Living ; from 1660 to 1670 , the King's Friends and Party came to receive his Favours after his Happy Restauration ; from 1670 to 1680 , the frequency of Plots and Parliaments , might bring extraordinary Numbers to the City ; but what Reasons to assign for the like Increase from 1604 to 1642 , I know not , unless I should pick out some Remarkable Accident happening in each part of the said Period , and make that to be the Cause of this Increase ( as vulgar People make the Cause of every Man's Sickness to be what he did last eat ) wherefore , rather than so to say , quidlibet de quolibet ; I had rather quit even what I have above-said to be the Cause of London's Increase from 1642 to 1682 , and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous Benefits and Advantages that Men find by living in great more than in small Societies ; and shall therefore seek for the Antecedent Causes of this Growth , in the Consequences of the like , considered in greater Characters and Proportions .

Now , whereas in Arithmetick , out of two false Positions the Truth is extracted , so I hope out of two extravagant contrary Suppositions , to draw forth some solid and consistent Conclusion , viz.

The first of the said two Suppositions is , That the City of London is seven times bigger than now , and that the Inhabitants of it are four Millions Six Hundred and Ninety Thousand People ; and that in all the other Cities , Ports , Towns and Villages , there are but two Millions Seven Hundred and Ten Thousand more .

The other Supposition is , That the City of London is but a seventh part of its present bigness , and that the Inhabitants of it are but Ninety Six Thousand , and that the rest of the Inhabitants ( being Seven Millions Three Hundred Four Thousand ) do co-habit thus , One Hundred Four Thousand of them in small Cities and Towns , and that the rest , being seven Millions Two Hundred Thousand , do inhabit in Houses not contiguous to one another , viz. In Twelve Hundred Thousand Houses , having about Twenty Four Acres of Ground belonging to each of them , accounting about Twenty Eight Millions of Acres to be in the whole Territory of England , Wales , and the adjacent Islands ; which any Man that pleases may examine upon a good Map .

Now , the Question is , In which of these imaginary States , would be the most convenient , commodious and comfortable Livings ?

But this general Question divides it self into the several Questions , relating to the following Particulars , viz.

1. For the Defence of the Kingdom against Foreign Powers . 2. For preventing the Intestine Commotions of Parties and Factions . 3. For Peace and Uniformity in Religion . 4. For the Administration of Justice . 5. For the proportionably Taxing of the People , and easie Levying the same . 6. For Gain by Foreign Commerce . 7. For Husbandry , Manufacture , and for Arts of Delight and Ornament . 8. For lessening the Fatigue of Carriages and Travelling . 9. For preventing Beggars and Thieves . 10. For the Advancement and Propagation of Useful Learning . 11. For Increasing the People by Generation . 12. For preventing the Mischiefs of Plagues and Contagions . And withal , which of the said two States is most Practicable and Natural ; for in these and the like Particulars , do lie the Tests and Touchstones of all Proposals , that can be made for the Publick Good .

First , as to Practicable , we say , That although our said Extravagant Proposals are both in Nature possible , yet it is not Obvious to every Man to conceive , how London , now seven times bigger than in the beginning of Queen Elizabeth's Reign , should be seven times bigger than now it is , and Forty Nine times bigger than Anno 1560. To which I say , 1. That the present City of London stands upon less than Two Thousand Five Hundred Acres of Ground ; wherefore a City seven times as large may stand upon Ten Thousand Five Hundred Acres , which is about equivalent to a Circle of Four Miles and a half in Diameter , and less than Fifteen Miles in Circumference . 2. That a Circle of Ground of Thirty Five Miles Semi-Diameter will bear Corn , Garden-stuff , Fruits , Hay , and Timber for the Four Millions Six Hundred and Ninety Thousand Inhabitants of the said City and Circle , so as nothing of that kind need be brought from above Thirty Five Miles distance from the said City ; for the Number of Acres within the said Circle , reckoning Two Acres sufficient to furnish Bread and Drink-Corn for every Head , and Two Acres will furnish Hay for every necessary Horse ; And that the Trees which may grow in the Hedge-rows of the Fields within the said Circle , may furnish Timber for Six Hundred Thousand Houses . 3. That all live Cattel and great Animals can bring themselves to the said City ; and that Fish can be brought from the Lands-end and Berwick , as easily as now . 4. Of Coals there is no doubt : And for Water , Twenty Shillings per Family ( or Six Hundred Thousand Pounds per Annum in the whole ) will serve this City , especially with the help of the New-River . But if by Practicable be understood , that the present State may be suddenly changed into either of the Two above-mentioned Proposals , I think it is not Practicable . Wherefore the true Question is , unto or towards which of the said Two extravagant States is best to bend the present State by degrees , viz. Whether it be best to lessen or enlarge the present City ? In order whereunto , we enquire ( as to the first Question ) which State is most Defensible against Foreign Powers ; saying . That if the above-mentioned Housing , and a border of Ground , of Three Quarters of a Mile broad , were encompassed with a Wall and Ditch of Twenty Miles about ( as strong as any in Europe , which would cost but a Million , or about a Peny in the Shilling of the House-Rent for one Year ) what Foreign Prince could bring an Army from beyond Seas , able to beat , 1. Our Sea-Forces , and next with Horse harrass'd at Sea , to resist all the fresh Horse that England could make , and then Conquer above a Million of Men , well United , Disciplin'd , and Guarded within such a Wall , distant every where Three Quarters of a Mile from the Housing , to elude the Granadoes and great Shot of the Enemy ? 2. As to Intestine Parties and Factions , I suppose that Four Millions Six Hundred and Ninety Thousand People united within this great City , could easily Govern half the said Number scattered without it ; and that a few Men in Arms within the said City and Wall , could also easily Govern the rest unarmed , or armed in such a manner as the Sovereign shall think fit . 3. As to Uniformity in Religion , I conceive , That if St. Martin's Parish ( may as it doth ) consist of about Forty Thousand Souls , That this great City also may as well be made but as one Parish , with Seven times One Hundred and Thirty Chappels , in which might not only be an Uniformity of Common Prayer , but in Preaching also ; for that a Thousand Copies of one Judiciously and Authentically composed Sermon , might be every Week read in each of the said Chappels without any subsequent Repetition of the same , as in the Case of Homilies . Whereas in England ( wherein are near Ten Thousand Parishes , in each of which upon Sundays , Holy-Days , and other extraordinary Occasions , there should be about One Hundred Sermons per Annum , making about a Million of Sermons per Annum in the whole : ) It were a Miracle , if a Million of Sermons composed by so many Men , and of so many Minds and Methods , should produce Uniformity upon the discomposed Understandings of about Eight Millions of Hearers .

4. As to the Administration of Justice . If in this great City shall dwell the Owners of all the Lands and other valuable Things in England ; if within it shall be all the Traders , and all the Courts , Offices , Records , Juries , and Witnesses ; then it follows , that Justice may be done with speed and ease .

5. As to the Equality and easie Levying of Taxes . It is too certain , that London hath at some times paid near half the Excise of England ; and that the People pay thrice as much for the Hearths in London , as those in the Country , in proportion to the People of each ; and that the Charge of Collecting these Duties , have been about a sixth part of the Duty it self . Now , in this great City , the Excise alone , according to the present Laws , would not only be double to the whole Kingdom , but also more equal . And the Duty of Hearths of the said City , would exceed the present proceed of the whole Kingdom : And as for the Customs , we mention them not at present .

6. Whether more would be gained by Foreign Commerce ?

The Gain which England makes by Lead , Coals , the Freight of Shipping , &c. may be the same , for ought I see , in both Cases . But the Gain which is made by Manufactures , will be greater , as the Manufacture it self is greater and better . For in so vast a City Manufactures will beget one another , and each Manufacture will be divided into as many parts as possible , whereby the Work of each Artisan will be simple and easie ; as for Example . In the making of a Watch , if one Man shall make the Wheels , another the Spring , another shall Engrave the Dial-plate , and another shall make the Cases , then the Watch will be better and cheaper , than if the whole Work be put upon any one Man . And we also see that in Towns , and in the Streets of a great Town , where all the Inhabitants are almost of one Trade , the Commodity peculiar to those places is made better and cheaper than elsewhere . Moreover , when all sorts of Manufactures are made in one place , there every Ship that goeth forth , can suddenly have its Loading of so many several Particulars and Species , as the Port whereunto she is bound can take off . Again , when the several Manufactures are made in one place , and shipped off in another , the Carriage , Postage , and Travelling-Charges will inhance the Price of such Manufacture , and lessen the Gain upon Foreign Commerce . And lastly , when the imported Goods are spent in the Port it self , where they are landed , the Carriage of the same into other places will create no surcharge upon such Commodity ; all which particulars tend to the greater Gain by Foreign Commerce .

7. As for Arts of Delight and Ornament .

They are best promoted by the greatest Number of Emulators . And it is more likely that one ingenious , curious Man may rather be found out amongst Four Millions than Four Hundred Persons . But as for Husbandry , viz. Tillage and Pasturage , I see no Reason , but the second State ( when each Family is charged with the Culture of about Twenty Four Acres ) will best promote the same .

8. As for lessening the Fatigue of Carriage and Travelling .

The thing speaks it self ; for if all the Men of Business , and all Artisans do live within Five Miles of each other : And if those who live without the great City , do spend only such Commodities as grow where they live , then the Charge of Carriage and Travelling could be little .

9. As to the preventing of Beggars and Thieves .

I do not find how the differences of the said two States should make much difference in this particular ; for Impotents ( which are but One in about Six Hundred ) ought to be maintained by the rest . 2. Those who are unable to Work , through the evil Education of their Parents , ought ( for ought I know ) to be maintained by their nearest Kindred , as a just Punishment upon them . 3. And those who cannot find Work ( though able and willing to perform it ) by reason of the unequal application of Hands to Lands , ought to be provided for by the Magistrate and Landlord till that can be done ; for there needs be no Beggars in Countries , where there are many Acres of unimproved improvable Land to every Head , as there are in England . As for Thieves , they are for the most part begotten from the same Cause ; for it is against Nature , that any Man should venture his Life , Limb , or Liberty , for a wretched Livelihood , whereas moderate Labour will produce a better . But of this see Sir Thomas Moor , in the first part of his Utopia .

10. As to the Propagation and Improvement of Useful Learning .

The same may be said concerning it , as was above-said concerning Manufactures , and the Arts of Delight and Ornament ; for in the great yast City , there can be no so odd a Conceit or Design , whereunto some Assistance may not be found , which in the thin , scattered way of Habitation may not be .

11. As for the Increase of People by Generatior ,

I see no great difference from either of the two States , for the same may be hindred or promoted in either , from the same Causes .

12. As to the Plague .

It is to be remembred , that one time with another , a Plague happeneth in London once in Twenty Years , or thereabouts ; for in the last Hundred Years , between the Years 1582 and 1682 , there have been Five great Plagues , viz. Anno 1592 , 1603 , 1625 , 1636 and 1665. And it is also to be remembred , that the Plagues of London do commonly kill one fifth part of the Inhabitants . Now , if the whole People of England do double but in Three Hundred and Sixty Years , then the Annual Increase of the same is but Twenty Thousand , and in Twenty Years Four Hundred Thousand . But if in the City of London there should be Two Millions of People , ( as there will be about Sixty Years hence ) then the Plague ( killing one fifth of them , namely , Four Hundred Thousand once , in Twenty Years ) will destroy as many in One Year , as the whole Nation can refurnish in Twenty : And consequently the People of the Nation shall never Increase . But if the People of London shall be above Four Millions ( as in the first of our Two extravagant Suppositions is premised ) then the People of the whole Nation shall lessen above Twenty Thousand per Annum . So as if People be worth Seventy Pounds per Head ( as hath elsewhere been shewn ) then the said greatness of the City will be a damage to it self and the whole Nation of Fourteen Hundred Thousand Pounds per Annum , and so pro Rata , for a greater or lesser Number ; wherefore to determine , which of the Two States is best , ( that is to say , towards which of the said Two States , Authority should bend the present State ) a just Balance ought to be made between the Disadvantages from the Plague , with the Advantages accruing from the other Particulars above-mentioned ; unto which Balance a more exact Account of the People , and a better Rule for the Measure of its Growth is necessary , that what we have here given , or are yet able to lay down .